Oxfordshire and wider Southern England are preparing for a notable warm spell next week, with temperatures predicted to climb as high as 26C. This shift towards late summer warmth follows a changeable period over the current weekend, as high pressure begins to build across the UK.
Return of Warmer Weather
According to the BBC, temperatures could peak at 26C in south-east England, with many other parts of England and Wales, Northern Ireland, and Eastern Scotland reaching the low 20s. The warmth is expected to be more significant in southern areas and could persist for the entire week in some parts of England and Wales. Most locations will experience temperatures higher than the seasonal average for late September.
Netweather indicates that Monday and Tuesday are likely to be the warmest days, with forecasts suggesting temperatures will reach the low to mid-twenties across parts of England and Wales. This warmer, more humid air is being drawn in by south-westerly winds from the mid-Atlantic, replacing the brisk conditions of recent days.
Weekend Transition and Calmer Conditions
The current week is concluding with cooler, more changeable conditions. Blustery winds from the Atlantic, including gales for some western coasts and hills, have dominated. Saturday will see a mix of sunshine and passing showers for many, though southern parts of England and Wales can expect mostly cloudy conditions with occasional rain or drizzle, particularly in the south-west.
However, as the jet stream begins to buckle through the second half of the weekend, the weather is set to calm down. By Sunday afternoon, early rain in the far north and south of the UK should clear, leaving most areas dry with sunny spells. Temperatures on Sunday will be closer to the seasonal average of 15-21C, feeling pleasant in the sunshine, according to the BBC.
Persistent Drought Concerns
While many may welcome the warmer conditions, the high pressure responsible for this warmth will also mean little rain for regions still grappling with drought conditions. The BBC highlights that recent rainfall has been well short of what is required to alleviate the drought across most of England and Wales. For example, by Friday morning, Leconfield in East Yorkshire had received only 11% of its normal September rainfall, and Durham just 14%.
Not an Official Heatwave, But Above Average Warmth
Despite the significant increase in temperatures, Netweather explicitly states there is “no indication that a heatwave is on the way” during the latter half of this month. Instead, it is described as a period where temperatures will trend above average by day, perhaps feeling humid for a time in the south.
Looking further into next week, a weather front moving into western Scotland is expected to bring widespread rain across the northern half of the UK midweek. However, high pressure is anticipated to hold across the south, ensuring many southern areas, including Oxfordshire, remain largely dry and warm through the rest of the week.
Outlook for Oxford and Oxfordshire
As part of Southern England, Oxfordshire is poised to experience the higher end of the forecast temperatures, potentially reaching 25-26C. Residents can expect largely dry and warm conditions throughout much of next week, marking a distinct change from the recent autumnal feel.
